US-China deal won’t pull world trade out of the doldrums – ING

"The agreement between the US and China won’t deliver enough stimulus for world trade to show a decent recovery in 2020," argues ING's Raoul Leering.

Key quotes

"The data for November and December 2019 is yet to be released, but the chances are that world trade in goods fell by half of one per cent last year. That's the first year of contraction since 2009. One reason for this is, of course, the trade war. Trade between the US and China was $90bn lower during the first eleven months of last year than over the same period in 2018, a drag on world trade of half a percentage point."

"Besides this direct effect, the trade war has also created a lot of uncertainty, especially in the trade-intensive manufacturing sector."

"Another reason for caution is that a significant part of the tariff increases only came about during the course of 2019. This means that trade flows in the first part of 2020 run up against higher trade barriers than last year, a drag for world trade."